Causal Geodesy: Counterfactual Estimation Along the Path Between Correlation and Causation
Speaker: Kyle Schindl
Abstract: We introduce a framework called causal geodesy for studying the landscape of stochastic interventions that lie between the two extremes of performing no intervention and performing a sharp intervention that sets an exposure equal to a specific value. We do this by constructing paths of distributions that interpolate between the treatment density and a point mass at the target intervention. Of particular interest are paths corresponding to geodesics in some metric. We then consider the interpreting and estimation of the corresponding causal effects.